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wind power forecasting
A wind power forecast corresponds to an estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines (referred to as a wind farm) in the near future. By production is often meant available power for wind farm considered (with units kW or MW depending on the wind farm nominal capacity). Forecasts can also be expressed in terms of energy, by integrating power production over each time interval.
==Time scales of forecasts==
Forecasting of the wind power generation may be considered at different time scales, depending on the intended application. From milliseconds up to a few minutes, forecasts can be used for the turbine active control. Such type of forecasts are usually referred to as ''very short-term'' forecasts. For the following 48–72 hours, forecasts are needed for the power system management or energy trading. They may serve for deciding on the use of conventional power plants (Unit commitment) and for the optimization of the scheduling of these plants (Economic dispatch). Bids for energy to be supplied on a day are usually required during the morning of the previous day. These forecasts are called ''short-term'' forecasts. For longer time scales (up to 5–7 days ahead), forecasts may be considered for planning the maintenance of wind farms, or conventional power plants or transmission lines. Maintenance of offshore wind farms may be particularly costly, so optimal planning of maintenance operations is of particular importance.
For the last two possibilities, the temporal resolution of wind power predictions ranges between 10 minutes and a few hours (depending on the forecast length). Improvements of wind power forecasting has focused on using more data as input to the models involved, and on providing uncertainty estimates along with the traditionally provided predictions.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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